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Insights / Case studies / Private Equity

Illustrative case study · Private Equity

Retrofit managers want an installer who works around their tenants.

A growth plan was riding on retrofit work. The PE-backed commercial HVAC installer behind it had grown on new-build jobs: could it win retrofits in existing buildings, and was there enough of that work? We interviewed 150 facility and project managers, and the report was ready in 11 days.

Illustrative scenario
Samplen = 150

Illustrative report

Commercial HVAC Installer Market

Can an installer built on new-build work win retrofit jobs, and is there enough retrofit work to carry the plan?

Study architecture

01
Map the needWhat each buyer group asks of an HVAC installer
02
Score the rivalsSeven criteria rated for the installer each manager uses now
03
Size the workPlanned replacements, timing and spend over three years

Scope

Retrofit work happens in buildings that stay open, so an installer may win or lose it on how it plans around tenants.

Sample

150

Facility and project managers at offices, schools, clinics and retail sites.

Research by UserCue
Study typeVendor selection
ScenarioIllustrative
Commercial HVAC installers · Executive reportExecutive summary

Executive summary

Retrofit buyers want an installer who works around tenants, and most would take a new bid

The 150 facility and project managers, recruited from a market panel, rated the HVAC installers they use today. Retrofit managers put working around occupied floors second of seven criteria, and their installers score worst on it. Most would invite a new installer to bid on after-hours, phased work, and retrofit holds more than half the installation spend these managers plan over three years.

2.4of 5, n = 70
current installer on working around occupied floors
61%n = 70
would invite a new installer to bid on phased work
54%of spend
planned over three years is for retrofit
91%of projects
planned for retrofit stay occupied during the work

Figures rounded. Base n = 150 facility and project managers unless stated.

Top lines

1Retrofit buyers rank working around tenants secondInstaller selection criteria by buyer group03
2Current installers score worst on the criterion retrofit buyers rank secondThe seven-criterion scorecard04
3Most retrofit managers would invite a new installer to bidOpenness to a new installer and what earns the bid05
4Retrofit holds more than half the installation spend these managers planPlanned projects, timing and spend06
5Sample, screener and quality controlWho we interviewed and how07
AAppendixQuestion flow and data tables09

Sample

150 facility and project managers

Segments

80 new-build, 70 retrofit

Method

AI-moderated interviews with a scorecard

Source

Market panel, no customer list

Illustrative report. The company, scenario, and all figures are fictional.

Illustrative report02
Illustrative reportExecutive summary

Illustrative example. The company, scenario, and all figures are fictional. They show UserCue’s method and deliverable format. They do not come from any client study.

The engagement

Illustrative scenario
Delivered in
11

days, with the report, the data file and a live readout.

Interviews
150

Facility and project managers who choose the HVAC installer.

Audiences
2

80 managers on new-build and 70 on retrofit projects.

Method
Scorecard

Seven criteria scored for the installer each manager uses now.

The brief
Client

A PE-backed commercial HVAC installer

Decision

Whether to push its growth plan into retrofit work

Stage

Growth planning, before a new segment push

How we ran it
Approach

AI-moderated interviews with a seven-criterion installer scorecard

Measured

Buyer needs, installer ratings, planned work and spend

Sample

Managers from a market panel; none were the company’s customers

Headline figures

Weak spot2.4

out of 5 is what retrofit managers give their installers for working around occupied floors

Open bids61%

of retrofit managers would invite a new installer to bid on after-hours, phased work

The work54%

of the HVAC installation spend respondents plan over three years is retrofit work

The question

Can a new-build installer win retrofit work?

The company grew on new-build installs won through general contractors. Its growth plan now leaned on retrofit work in existing buildings, where facility managers hire directly and an incumbent holds the relationship. So the evidence had to come from managers who had never worked with the company.

1

What do facility and project managers need from an HVAC installer?

2

How do they rate their installer on seven criteria, and would they try another?

3

How much new-build and retrofit work do they plan over the next three years?

What we did

How the study ran, start to finish.

  1. 1Kickoff

    Retrofit growth, on the table.

    Can a new-build installer win retrofit jobs, and is there enough retrofit work for the plan? The kickoff turned it into three questions: what each group needs, how they rate their installer and would try another, and how much work they plan.

  2. 2Design

    Outside managers, seven criteria.

    The screener drew managers from a market panel, so none were the company’s customers, and kept those who choose the installer: 80 on new-build and 70 on retrofit. Each scored their current installer on seven criteria, and project plans fed a sizing model.

  3. 3Fielding

    Retrofit managers recall the last job.

    Retrofit managers recalled what tenants went through on their last job, by voice or text, quant and qual in one conversation, in median 31-minute interviews. The researcher read all 170 and removed 20 for duplicate identities or residential-only work, leaving 150.

  4. 4Analysis

    Incumbents stumble around tenants.

    The researcher put each criterion’s importance against the current installer’s score, which showed where retrofit incumbents are weakest. Working around occupied floors ranks second of seven for retrofit managers, and their installers score 2.4 out of 5 on it, their weakest mark.

  5. 5Readout

    Bid lists are open to newcomers.

    The researcher reviewed the 31-page report, scorecard, sizing model and full data file with the market team and the investor at a live readout. The retrofit plan now leads with after-hours, phased work for the 61% ready to invite a new installer.

What we found

Four findings from the report.

Summary

Retrofit managers judge an installer on how it works around tenants, and the installers they use today score worst there. Their bid lists are open: most would invite a new installer for after-hours, phased work. Retrofit is the larger pool, holding more than half the installation spend respondents plan over three years.

Commercial HVAC installers · Executive reportTop line 1
1

Top line 1 of 4

Retrofit buyers rank working around tenants second

1 Q4. Which three of these matter most when you choose an HVAC installer? Pick three, n = 150.

2 Occupancy by building type is directional; see the appendix tables.

The two buyer groups ask different things of an installer. Retrofit managers rank working around occupied floors second of seven criteria, behind quality of installation1. Only 5% of new-build managers pick it. The reason is the building: 91% of planned retrofit projects are in buildings that stay occupied during the work.

67%n = 70
of retrofit managers put occupied floors in their top three
5%n = 80
of new-build managers do the same
91%of projects
planned for retrofit stay occupied
2ndof 7
rank for occupied floors among retrofit managers

Installer criteria in the top three, retrofit managers

Criteria in their top three of seven, retrofit managers (n = 70)

50100Quality of installation69%Working around occupied floors67%Meeting the schedule53%Responsiveness on service calls37%Price and value33%

Criteria in the top three, new-build managers (n = 80)

Meeting the schedule76%Quality of installation65%Price and value60%Working around occupied floors5%

Planned retrofit projects by occupancy

Building status68%23%
Fully occupiedPartly occupiedEmpty

Each manager picked three of seven criteria, so shares total about 300. Occupancy is per planned project. Quality checks removed 20 of 170 interviews.

Supporting evidence

  • Safety record draws few top-three picks from retrofit managers: they treat it as the price of entry. § 3.2
  • Schools and clinics lead the occupied share: they cannot close for a system swap. § 3.32
Illustrative report03
Commercial HVAC installers · Executive reportTop line 2
2

Top line 2 of 4

Current installers score worst on the criterion retrofit buyers rank second

1 Q6. How would you score your current HVAC installer on each of these, from 1 to 5? n = 150.

2 The overall rating weights the seven criteria equally.

Each manager scored the installer they use now on all seven criteria, from 1 to 5. Retrofit managers give their installer 2.4 on working around occupied floors, against 3.4 on average across the other six1. Only 9% rate it 4 or 5 there. New-build managers are more satisfied overall, with an average of 3.8 across the seven criteria against 3.3 for retrofit.

2.4of 5, n = 70
working around occupied floors
3.4of 5, n = 70
average of the other six criteria
3.8of 5, n = 80
new-build average across all seven
3.3of 5, n = 70
retrofit average across all seven

Current installer rated 4 or 5, by criterion

Rate their current installer 4 or 5 of 5, retrofit managers (n = 70)

50100Safety record83%Quality of installation76%Meeting the schedule61%Price and value57%Clear quotes and change orders47%Responsiveness on service calls44%Working around occupied floors9%

Rate their current installer 4 or 5 overall

New-build managers (n = 80)69%Retrofit managers (n = 70)43%

Lowest-scored criteria, retrofit managers (n = 70)

  1. 1Working around occupied floors
  2. 2Responsiveness on service calls
  3. 3Clear quotes and change orders

Scores on a 1 to 5 scale for the installer each manager uses now; averages are means. Shares rated 4 or 5 are per criterion and do not sum to 100.

Supporting evidence

  • Retrofit managers describe after-hours work promised at the bid and dropped once a job runs late. § 4.2
  • Overall, 69% of new-build managers rate their installer 4 or 5, against 43% of retrofit managers. § 4.32
Illustrative report04
Commercial HVAC installers · Executive reportTop line 3
3

Top line 3 of 4

Most retrofit managers would invite a new installer to bid

1 Q8. Would you invite an installer you have not used to bid on your next project if it offered after-hours, phased work? n = 150.

2 Q9. What would earn a new installer the bid? Multi-select, n = 70.

Retrofit managers are open to a change of installer. 61% of retrofit managers would invite a new installer to bid on after-hours, phased work, against 31% of new-build managers1. 63% of retrofit managers have no fixed term with their current installer. A written phasing plan and named after-hours crews would earn the bid.

61%n = 70
of retrofit managers would invite a new installer to bid
31%n = 80
of new-build managers would do the same
63%n = 70
of retrofit managers have no fixed term with their installer
43of 70
retrofit managers open to a new bid

What would earn a new installer the bid, retrofit managers

Would earn the bid, multi-select (n = 70)

50100A written phasing plan for occupied floors69%Named after-hours crews63%Tenant notices handled by the installer47%A single point of contact on site37%References from similar buildings33%

Would invite a new installer to bid (n = 70)

Retrofit managers61%33%
Would inviteUnsureWould not

Would invite a new installer, by segment

Retrofit managers (n = 70)61%New-build managers (n = 80)31%

Single-select intent question; shares are rounded. What would earn the bid is multi-select, asked of all 70 retrofit managers; shares do not sum to 100.

Supporting evidence

  • Managers on a fixed-term contract are the least open: they wait for the term to end. § 5.2
  • The phasing plan matters most for schools and clinics, the buildings that cannot close. § 5.32
Illustrative report05
Commercial HVAC installers · Executive reportTop line 4
4

Top line 4 of 4

Retrofit holds more than half the installation spend these managers plan

1 Q5. Which HVAC projects do you plan for your buildings over the next three years? Multi-select, n = 70.

2 Q7. Roughly what will you spend on HVAC installation over the next three years? Banded, n = 150.

The sizing inputs come from the managers’ own project plans. Retrofit holds 54% of the HVAC installation spend respondents plan over three years1, from 47% of the sample. Retrofit managers plan a median of three major system replacements each, led by rooftop units and controls upgrades. The sizing model scales these inputs to the company’s regions.

54%of planned spend
retrofit share of three-year installation spend
3median, n = 70
major system replacements planned per retrofit manager
63%n = 70
plan a rooftop unit replacement
47%of the sample
retrofit managers among the 150

Planned retrofit projects over three years

Retrofit managers planning each project, multi-select (n = 70)

50100Rooftop unit replacement63%Controls and building automation upgrade57%Chiller or boiler replacement44%Heat pump conversion36%Ductwork and air handling overhaul33%

Planned installation spend over three years (n = 150)

Share of spend54%46%
RetrofitNew-build

Next retrofit project starts, retrofit managers (n = 70)

Within a year43%In one to two years36%In two to three years21%

Spend is self-reported in bands and taken at band midpoints; the model scales sample spend to the company’s regions. Project types are multi-select and do not sum to 100.

Supporting evidence

  • Controls upgrades often ride along with replacements, a second job inside the same building. § 6.2
  • New-build spend is lumpier: a few large projects carry most of it. § 6.32
Illustrative report06
Top line 1 of 4 · page 03Illustrative report · top line 1 of 4 · swipeIllustrative report
1
Question 1 · Buyer needs

Retrofit buyers rank working around tenants second.

Retrofit managers put working around occupied floors second of seven criteria, behind quality of installation; only 5% of new-build managers pick it. 91% of planned retrofit projects are in buildings that stay occupied during the work.

Quality of installation69%
Working around occupied floors67%
Meeting the schedule53%
Responsiveness on service calls37%
Criteria in their top three of seven · retrofit managers · n = 70
2
Question 2 · The scorecard

Incumbents score worst on what retrofit buyers rank second.

Retrofit managers give their current installer 2.4 out of 5 on working around occupied floors, against 3.4 on average across the other six criteria. Only 9% rate it 4 or 5 there.

2.4working around occupied floors
3.4average of the other six criteria
Current installer score out of 5 · retrofit managers · n = 70
3
Question 2 · The opening

Most retrofit managers would put a new installer on the bid list.

61% of retrofit managers would invite a new installer to bid on after-hours, phased work, against 31% of new-build managers. A written phasing plan and named after-hours crews would earn the bid.

61%retrofit managers
31%new-build managers
Would invite a new installer to bid · n = 70 vs n = 80
4
Question 3 · The work

Retrofit holds more than half the planned spend.

Retrofit holds 54% of the HVAC installation spend respondents plan over three years. Retrofit managers plan a median of three major system replacements each, led by rooftop units and controls upgrades.

Rooftop unit replacement63%
Controls and building automation upgrade57%
Chiller or boiler replacement44%
Heat pump conversion36%
Retrofit projects planned over three years · multi-select · n = 70
“Our installer does good work. The trouble is they do it at ten in the morning with a full floor of tenants upstairs.”
Facility manager · Illustrative quote

Illustrative quotes

Three themes behind the numbers.

Tenants
“Every shutdown turns into forty complaint emails. The installer never sees them. I do.”
Facility manager
Scheduling
“They promise nights and weekends at the bid, then the crew shows up mid-morning because that is when they have people.”
Property operations manager
Open bid
“I would add a new name to the bid list tomorrow if they showed me a phasing plan for an occupied building.”
Director of facilities

What the company did

Three moves made with the report.

1The plan · from finding 3

Made retrofit in occupied buildings the plan’s lead.

After-hours crews and phased schedules head the offer, built for the 61% of retrofit managers who would put a new installer on the bid list. The sizing model sets the first-year targets.

2The bid · from finding 1

Put a phasing plan in every retrofit bid.

Each bid now shows how the work moves floor by floor around tenants, the criterion retrofit managers rank second of seven.

3The crews · from finding 2

Trained crews to work around tenants.

Tenant notices, shutdown windows and floor-by-floor handover joined crew training, aimed at the criterion where incumbents score 2.4 out of 5.

Illustrative example. The company, scenario, and all figures are fictional. They show UserCue’s method and deliverable format. They do not come from any client study.

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